Deterioration in Iraq

I have long felt that the situation in Iraq is not as bad as the media portray it. Reporters focus on the bombings and relentless trickle of US deaths, while large parts of Iraq are at peace and the new government is getting itself together. But it is becoming clear that the situation is deteriorating. The rebellion, at first sparse and uncoordinated, is organizing and gaining ground. The rebels now control the entire city of Fallujah. Terrorist bombings are getting larger and more devastating. A recent USA Today article puts it thus:

More than 300 Iraqis died last week in car bombings and other violence. Attacks on U.S. soldiers have escalated to more than 50 a day, and scores of Iraqis and foreigners have been kidnapped. U.S. intelligence estimates warn of an increasingly fragmented Iraq and a possible civil war between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Elections in only part of the country could increase chances for a violent breakup.

So far, Iraqi government and US forces have been unable to effectively confront these challenges, which has emboldened the enemy to strike harder. This is the most damaging element this deterioration. The enemy has demonstrated that they can defeat occupation and government forces, which will encourage more enemy activity and will bring about a greater coordination of activity across Iraq. The failure to deal effectively with al Sadr, leaving him free after his repeated defiance of and rebellion against the government, has contributed to this.

Even Republican leaders in Congress are beginning to criticize the administration's handling of the situation in Iraq. Senator Chuck Hagel said, "The fact is, we're in deep trouble in Iraq ... and I think we're going to have to look at some recalibration of policy." Senator Richard Lugar complained of the administration's "incompetence" in handling Iraqi reconstruction.

The consensus seems to be that a military offensive by the US Army and Marines is required to retake Fallujah. This is clearly crucial. But we must also help build a more effective Iraqi military force to assert the authority of the provisional government. Without that, we merely extend our occupation and propagate the view that Allawi and his government are no more than puppets propped up by the US military. We must focus on building and strengthening the government to deal with these challenges.